Roadmap is basically a schedule for a certain sector to reach certain level. In a roadmap there should be at least time indicator and also milestones for each time indicator. However a roadmap is more complex than just a schedule since all the related milestones bring consequences in all aspects.
For example a roadmap of a bike shop, the main goal is to be the largest bike shop in town in 10 years. The milestones for example are: year one the shop has to sell at least 2 bikes a day; year two the shop has to become authorized distributor for 2 major bike brands and sells 3 bikes a day; year five the store area has to increase from 100 m2 to at least 200 m2 and so on and so on. The consequences that follow that road map can be for example: assess the competitors, develop cycling habits in town, find cheap bicycle supplier, train repair workshops in town, do some cycling activities with local government, increase number of salesmen, develop innovative financial support for bike owners etc.. To be concluded, there are many to do to materialize the roadmap.
Right now the government of Indonesia, especially Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources wants to create a roadmap for micro hydro power. I have not got my hand on it therefore these will be my expectations towards the roadmap. My expectations are:
- The roadmap must have realistic time frame
- The roadmap must have realistic and achievable targets
- The roadmap must not only considering micro hydro technology but also all related policy, standard, education, supporting activities, capacity of industry etc. that will eventually help to develop the market.
What’s a realistic time frame? To my knowledge, developing micro hydro competence in Indonesia took quite long time. Anyone can argue about the beginning of this, but the real and currently is becoming the mainstream of micro hydro development in Indonesia is the technology transfer of cross flow turbine back in early 90’s or late 80’s. Before that time frame government has tried to import technologies from Germany using BPPT’s capacity, in the late 70’s manufacturing capacities have been developed into state owned companies such as Barata, but all did not sustain (there are many reasons but cheap oil price might played the bigger role in it). They ended up as projects without any internalization of the technology. Right now the cross flow technology has reached its peak in Indonesia. It took almost 20 years to develop from zero to the condition right now (although one has to admit that the advance development is only limited to Bandung manufacturers such as Heksa, Cihanjuang and Kramatraya). So, I would say the realistic time frame is 20 years for the next leap. I might be conservative with this time frame because I consider the availability of academic experts that have the capacity in developing micro hydro technology (as the main motor of change in the sector). Like it or not technology must go beyond current status in the next 20 years. Other aspects will be supporting and creating condition for such advancement.
What should be the realistic and achievable target? I would say there are some achievable targets: simpler, reliable and easier to manufacture micro hydro hardware; more implementations not only for rural off grid but also on grid; more dispersed manufacturers; better sustainability of schemes; and better implementation of schemes. Currently the design for simple, reliable and easy to manufacture micro hydro turbine is available therefore it is realistic and achievable. More implementations means there is a need for better policy especially interconnection policy for micro hydro schemes. It is very realistic and is a must actually. More dispersed manufacturer might be the hardest part. Government has to take risks in order to develop new manufacturers so that they can produce quality hardware. Standard has to be established and government has to be strict and stick on its implementation.
Related to all above, the changes in policy, such as interconnection policy, will certainly give significant impact to the progress of micro hydro hardware technology. If there is a positive attitude in the policy there will be a boost in site implementation and local manufacturers will reap the benefit and if the market needs it, they can improve their technology. Not just that, sustainability of the scheme must also be considered. This means all schemes that have been erected must be monitored and supervised if necessary. Government better to prepare a nation wide program that ensures all erected micro hydro scheme are sustainable. Involving all stakeholders is necessary. Academics as the think tank and the source of technological advancement have to make their position strong by doing researches. All have to do their task in a synergistic way.
Last but not least, the roadmap has to be detail and really based on current strength, weaknesses, opportunity and also threads. The one who develops the roadmap has to have vast knowledge of the sector and should know what IPP stands for (i.e. independent power producer).
Cheers
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