Hydropower Investment - Where to?

Hydropower is always related to rainfall. Area that is dry (low rainfall) suppose to be not very attactive for hydropower investment. Let's take a look only on the rainfall information. According to the latest document of Bappenas, the Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR), rainfall in all areas in Indonesia will change. The changes are either an increase or a decrease. The simulation reported that Sumatera and Papua will have mostly increases of rainfall. Download ICCSR report here.

In Sumatera, central to south Sumatera might have significant increase of rainfall intensity. Siginificant increase means bigger than 25 mm and lower than 50 mm. Central to North Sumatera might have significant increase and very significant increase (higher than 50 mm). In Papua, all areas will have significant increase of rainfall with some months might have very significant increases of rainfall intensity.

The Gasoline Problem

It was few months ago when the government started the campaign to reduce the consumption of subsidized gasoline. Not very long after that, there are many "fuel pump" problems. Fuel pumps get clogged and even burnt. Many found that there is something wrong with the gasoline (at least their preliminary conclusion). Not very long after that two big taxi operators also reported that hundreds not to mention thousands cars of their fleet also have fuel pump problems. This creates suspicion to the government. Many says that government through state owned oil company try to reduce the consumption of subsidized fuel (gasoline) by putting something bad in the liquid.

All the allegations have not been proved. No one still can not prove that either government or state own company or even the car user or the fuel station owner played dirty. The state own company defended it self to being strict to the standard. Everything come out from their refineries or central distribution points are tested according to the regulation and standard. There are no violations what so ever. Taxi operators even sent the fuel sample to an independent lab in Thailand for a test and the lab showed that the gasoline has too much sulfur content. Sulfur content is always a problem for the diesel fuel here in Indonesia. The quality of diesel fuel is not so clean. Sulfur content is a bit high so that advance common rail systems would not drink it. I am a bit afraid that the fuel station wrongly refuel the underground tanks. The one usually for diesel fuel is refilled with gasoline. They mix and increase sulfur content in the gasoline. But, how likely this is in reality? I guess zero.

Only the Bill that Makes People Worry....

world cup has made a slight increase on the power demand. world cup finals in south africa are played at night in Indonesia. time difference of approximately 4-6 hours between south africa and indonesia (jakarta) has created this situation. during the group matches the games are played between 6 p.m. to around 11 p.m. Indonesian time. In the knock out phase, the games are played between 9 p.m. to around 3 a.m. and semi finals are played at even later time. they starts at 1.30 a.m.. I guess the final will also be played at around 1.30 a.m..

for football fans, the knock out round, semi finals and final are the most interesting rounds of the world cup finals. this has made them stay awake longer than before. the longer those tvs on, the more electricity is consumed. however there are also people that prefer watching the matches with friends or colleagues. this means they watch the tv not at home and maybe only one tv on for, let's say 5-10 people. this has made significant power saving compared to one tv for 1-2 people only. In Indonesia, only the national broadcaster that broadcast the matches. sattelite or pay tv customers are not able to see it via the subscription tv. this might further reduce the possibilities of more tv to be on at late night.

Not the Right Time

Currently Indonesia is experiencing a strange climate condition. It is already July now and in July usually we have dry season with very very little rain. Instead of being very hot and dry, there are still rains throughout Indonesia. The meteorological bureau says that the anomaly is caused by La Nina phenomenon which extend the rainy season in Indonesia.

Official - Electricity Tariff Increase July 2010

BASIC ELECTRICITY TARIFF WILL BE INCREASE BY 10% IN JULY 2010.

It is already in the news that Government of Indonesia will increase the basic electricity tariff by 105 in July 2010. By doing this, the government can reduce the subsidy up to IDR 800 billion per month and thus can reduce government spending and avoid budget deficit. I personally say this is a good news. I might have higher electricity bill next August, however this is a real momentum for energy efficiency measures. Government should and must make bigger campaign on energy efficiency and conservation. More news in Detik Finance (in bahasa).

PLN Says - Free Electricity for Poor People

Director of PLN mentioned this idea to provide free electricity for poor consumers. Poor consumers according to his definition are those who have 450 VA connections. According to his calculation, PLN will only lost IDR 1.5 trillion if electricity is free for poor consumers. His argues that if the new tariff is applied PLN will profit IDR 20 trillion from richer consumers. If tariff is applied and no exceptions are made PLN will profit roughly IDR 40 trillion. 

Opinions are divided into two groups. Those that are supporting the idea say that all other state owned companies should also do that as social obligation. Those who against the idea say that such thing will only create complex conditions, opening more holes for corruption, making PLN suffers from lost (despite calculation above) and many other reasons.

Energypedia.info - new renewable energy portal

The global energy program called Energizing Development or EnDev was initiated approximately 3 years ago by the Dutch government. It is also basically a cooperation program between Dutch government and German government. The target of EnDev is giving energy access to approximately 10 million people before 2015 (target year of MDG). EnDev is implemented by GTZ and operating in 19 developing countries in the world and active in four main areas of activities namely: energy for cooking, energy for household, energy for social infrastructure, and energy for productive use.

Special Allocation Fund - Model for Rural RE Implementation

In the recent years government of Indonesia spent lot of money to electrify rural areas. There are many programs such as decentralization fund support, energy independent village, rural electrification, energy facility support from Ministry of Under Developed Areas, and also Kecamatan Development Project (KDP) project under Ministry of Internal Affairs. Beside those major programs there are smaller projects by local governments, non government organizations and other government institutions.

In short, there are many models of implementation and so far there is no evidence of the best implementation model that can be used by many and replicated easily. Implementation model applied by NGOs usually are close to ideal however the success rate is also questionable since there is not enough information. Quite ideal here means there is a combination of top down and bottom up approach. The level of community involvement is usually also quite high and there is specific activity to facilitate the community to be ready with the new installation. Government's implementation model varies between implementing Ministries. The common characteristics of government's approach are top down, little community participation, and lack of monitoring and supervision.

Basic Hydro Power - Part 4

Understanding the principle of head and flow and the importance to get correct data of them, then it is time to know more about components of a scheme. The basic components of a micro hydro scheme is illustrated below (source: MHP Scout Guide, GTZ Ethiopia).

Basic Hydro Power - Part 3

Suddenly you have to measure the head of a water stream. What kind of method would you use? Before answering such question, let's go back a little bit and review the map. With a quite detailed map someone can determine which position is best for the intake and power house and other components of the plant The planner has to draw a sketch and put the rough layout of the power plant on the map. The map should be quite detail (1:25000 scale might do). From the map, one can make an approximation of the head. Measuring in the field will verify the approximation.

Fuel Subsidy - Vol II

Just after big discussion about subsidized fuel consumption, the price of non-subsidized fuel is going down. The price of non subsidized fuel is in the range of IDR 6400 to IDR 7400 per liter. The price is attached to international crude oil price, therefore there is always a chance that the non-subsidized fuel price to be higher or lower. If the crude oil price goes down extremely, the price of non subsidized fuel might also be very close to the price of subsidized fuel (i.e. IDR 4500 per liter).

In this case why don't the government also attached the subsidized fuel price with the international crude oil price?

Fuel Subsidy - Quo Vadis?

Recently there is a big discussion on the internet about the plan from the government to reduce the consumption of subsidized fuel (especially gasoline). There are some proposals to reduce the consumptions: ban the motor bikes from buying subsidized gasoline; limit the purchase per motorized vehicle per man per day; smart card to limit the purchase; and ban the cars from consuming the subsidized fuel. There is a big discussion about the proposed strategies especially the one that plans to ban motor bikes from buying subsidized fuel.

the motorists are against that particular strategy and their opinion is backed up by motor cycle industry. Their arguments mainly are: motor bike consumption is far less that car, therefore it is the car that should be banned from using subsidized fuel; motor bike users are mainly of lower income therefore using non subsidized fuel would certainly eat bigger part of their income. Final decision is not yet taken since any decision will certainly effect the national economy.

Basic Hydro Power - part 2

We already know that flow of water and the height of water fall (or height difference of water flowing from point A to point B or to be short "head") are the important things one needs to know correctly before deciding to go for hydro power or not. Measuring those two parameters needs special skill. Special skill means one has to understand how to use the method and its weaknesses. Let's discuss about measuring flow of water. There are many ways or methods of flow measurement: current meter method, float method, tracer method (salt dilution/water conductivity for example), sharp crested weir method, gauging station method etc.

Basic Hydro Power - part 1

Well I guess many has already understand better that I do about hydro power, however there are still people who simplify the complexity of hydro power even the micro one. Questions like: if I have 500 liters per second, how much kW would I get, still comes to experts. This kind a thing needs an education and complex explanation of things would not help at all. So, I will try to give very basic understanding of how modern hydro power (micro size maybe to be specific) works. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Hydro power is basically power generation by utilizing water power (in this case in general the potential energy of falling water). Therefore the original use of hydro power is to give movement. Water drops move a water wheel that eventually makes certain mechanism to rotate or move and provide specific service. In the old days many mills are using hydro power directly to give movement to their mill facilities. Old hydro power systems use the weight of the water to move the wheel.

ISO 50001 Energy Management

International community is moving forward on Energy Efficiency. Right now there is already a draft of ISO 50001 which standardize Energy Management. Energy management is an essential component of efforts to increase the efficiency of energy usage. It is an essential part because energy efficiency and conservation needs clear plan, strategies, and target to achieve. Energy, in a production process, is an important part that affects the cost of production therefore managing energy usage wisely and methodically will lead to reduced cost of production and eventually increase the competitiveness of the product and also the company.

Indonesia will certainly adopt the standard. The head of Standardization Agency (BSN) has informed public that they are on the track of adopting the ISO standard. As soon as the international draft is approved and becoming operation ISO, Indonesian government will immediately adopt it.

There are some options of adaptation. First is full adaptation and only translation is needed. The second is slight changes and most of the ISO standard is included. This strategy needs longer time to finish. The last one is creating new national standard with the ISO standard as the reference. This last strategy takes longest time. BSN is likely to choose the fast track strategy, or 100% adopt the ISO. To my opinion, this strategy is the most appropriate one. Indonesia now is badly in a need of Energy Management standard to improve national competitiveness and also energy performance.

Hopefully many companies will in the future voluntarily apply the new ISO or new National Standard to improve their performance and competitiveness. Now there is a big need for energy managers.

PrePaid Meter

Approximately 2 months ago I saw prepaid kWh meters are installed at some new houses in a housing estate near my home in Bogor. I was quite surprised that PLN did it since, as far as I know, PLN still in pilot testing phase for those kind of meters. the meters are installed at houses that are still constructed. I guess that was intended to secure the electricity payment by housing estate developer during the construction. The already inhabited houses (new ones) use normal kWh meter (not prepaid). According to the brick layers that are working in those houses, their foreman has to go to the bank to get electricity "credits" that later are charged into the meter by putting in codes. I did not see any external MCB, that usually accompany normal kWh meters. this meter should not be unlimited (by MCB) because basically it will make the power planning difficult for PLN.

searching the internet, I found that since 2005 PLN already started using prepaid kWh meters in Bali. Bali is the first because there are many houses or villas without are empty without any people staying. to avoid bad cash flow, off course, this prepaid system is very rational. After Bali, PLN then made the pilot projects in Jakarta and Tangerang area. In 2007 people in the thousand islands are equipped with prepaid kWh meter and starting 2009 the "land" customers have the chance to use this prepaid system also. According to the sources in the Internet there are now approximately 27.000 customers of PLN using prepaid system. PLN now limits the prepaid connection up to only 5.500 VA. This means the kWh meter system has a limiting device. I guess it can be electronically programmed to exactly trip when the current is reaching certain level.

I found this prepaid system both interesting and practical. It is interesting because it is new and opens many possibilities for privacy, flexible payment, and no penalties for late payment. there is no validity limit on the credits (not like most prepaid GSM systems). One still can use the 2 years old credit. This is great. It is practical because one can and have to manage his electricity consumption wisely. For budget limited families, this can be a useful solution. For example: one family only allocate IDR 50.000 per month for electricity. By adjusting power usage, this target can be achieved. One can buy the credits everywhere such as in banks, ATM, or directly to nearest PLN service points. However the lowest credit one can buy is IDR 100.000, but this can be used more than 1 month if a family uses electricity conservatively.

However there is one thing in my mind that is so far unanswered: the tariff. I guess the tariff still follows the national tariff now. Therefore tariff below and above 60 kWh will be different. What about the connection fee or the subscription fee? Is there any subscription fee? Is there any grace period, after the credit finish, before someone has the chance to recharge the credit? Does it temper proof? Are there any possibilities for someone to hack the system? PLN once said that this meter system will make their work easier since it is not needed to check the stand of the meter. But if rarely checked then there might be people trying to bypass the meter and tap the electricity directly from the connection cables.

The prepaid meter opens many opportunities both positive or negative. Now it’s time to prove the performance of the system and also it’s realibility.

Translation of GOOD & BAD of Mini Hydro Power

GOOD & BAD of Mini Hydro Power (can be downloaded at the following link), will be available at least in 5 other languages (Cambodian, Laotian, Vietnamese, Indonesian and French). Two translation processes (into Vietnamese and Indonesian) are already on going while the other three are still in the administration process. If someone wants to translate into local language, he/she can contact ASEAN-Centre for Energy for the detail.

Important requirement for translation is that the quality of translation must be at top level so that it does not reduce the quality or meaning of the contents of the original English version.

ASEAN Centre for Energy
ASEAN Centre for Energy Building, 6^th Floor
Jl. HR. Rasuna Said Blok X-2, Kav. 07-08 Kuningan, Jakarta-12950, Indonesia
Tel. (62-21) 527 9332 · Fax. (62-21) 527 9350
Email. info@aseanenergy.org

Development Boom in Renewable Energy Sector in the Next 5 years?

A new ministerial decree is coming on 13th November 2009 (31/2009). I guess, this is a part of the government’s 100 days program especially from Department of Energy and Mineral Resources. The new ministerial decree is concerning the feed in tariff for renewable energy generators with capacity less than 10 MW or excess power. The new decree automatically cancels the infant ministerial decree number 5/2009 that was just released few months ago.

What’s the main characteristic of this new decree? It is the feed in price. For generators interconnected to medium voltage (I guess it is 20 kV), the averaged feed in price is 656 IDR/kWh for Java Bali area (factor = 1). For generators interconnected to low voltage (I guess it is 400 V), the averaged feed in price is 1004 IDR/kWh for Java Bali area (factor = 1). For islands other than Java Bali there are some multiplication factors (e.g. Sumatera and Sulawesi is 1.2; Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara (East and West) is 1.3; and Papua is 1.5).

I guess the “staging” concept is still valid. This means in the first 5 or 7 years the developer can get higher feed in price (compared to the averaged price) and in the rest of the contract time, developer will get lower feed in price (compared to the averaged price).

It seems the procedure will be shortened since PLN is obliged to prepare a standardized contract form. This means there is no negotiation (also looking at the set price above). Implementation of projects will hopefully be faster unless PLN applies hard requirements for developers such as for example EBITDA 30% for the last 2 years (maybe PLN itself can not achieve this, although PLN’s move might be based on very rational reason such as preventing PPA holder from being brokers (selling PPA contracts) instead of being serious renewable energy generator developer).

Feed in price problem, that was, some weeks ago, still perceived as problem by some MHP developers is solved. This, according to association of mini hydro developers, is considered as a very good step and it expects a boom of MHP development in the next 3-5 years. The association predicts that the boom can reach 500 MW per year and that will make the industry facing a new problem. How to provide the hardware?

Currently MHP developers are mostly using Chinese or European hardware for their MHP schemes. Chinese products are very much having many varieties of quality. It corresponds with the price. European products usually have consistent quality standard, this means cost is very much fixed (i.e. quite high). There is also new Indonesian manufacturer that has just started into MHP hardware business (turbine) in MW scale. The next challenge to the government is to provide local manufacturers more capacities so that they can benefit from the MHP boom in the next 3-4 years. If local manufacturers can not move fast, all the benefits will go abroad and the overall goal of the new ministerial decree is missed.

The old decree (e.g. 1122/2002) set lower feed in price for interconnection at low voltage (0.6 times marginal cost of production at interconnection point). This new decree sets higher feed in price for interconnection at low voltage. Does this move is a strategy to encourage micro renewable energy generators? I guess this is to encourage such things. However the procedure should be very much shortened for the micro size since, I guess, it will be community based or very small private companies or cooperatives that might not have enough resources to pay the high transaction cost (relative) of interconnection process.

Anyway, although this was quite late (all energy minister should have done this years ago), but this decree is mostly welcomed by players in the sector. They have positive opinion on this and expecting that there will be a boom in the sector. Hydro power might lead the boom since the technology and also resources are already available and assessed so often.

Let's hope for positive development and prepare the necessary actions to tackle possible problems due to this decree.

Micro Hydro Development Roadmap - What to Expect?

Roadmap is basically a schedule for a certain sector to reach certain level. In a roadmap there should be at least time indicator and also milestones for each time indicator. However a roadmap is more complex than just a schedule since all the related milestones bring consequences in all aspects.

For example a roadmap of a bike shop, the main goal is to be the largest bike shop in town in 10 years. The milestones for example are: year one the shop has to sell at least 2 bikes a day; year two the shop has to become authorized distributor for 2 major bike brands and sells 3 bikes a day; year five the store area has to increase from 100 m2 to at least 200 m2 and so on and so on. The consequences that follow that road map can be for example: assess the competitors, develop cycling habits in town, find cheap bicycle supplier, train repair workshops in town, do some cycling activities with local government, increase number of salesmen, develop innovative financial support for bike owners etc.. To be concluded, there are many to do to materialize the roadmap.

Right now the government of Indonesia, especially Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources wants to create a roadmap for micro hydro power. I have not got my hand on it therefore these will be my expectations towards the roadmap. My expectations are:

• The roadmap must have realistic time frame
• The roadmap must have realistic and achievable targets
• The roadmap must not only considering micro hydro technology but also all related policy, standard, education, supporting activities, capacity of industry etc. that will eventually help to develop the market.

What’s a realistic time frame? To my knowledge, developing micro hydro competence in Indonesia took quite long time. Anyone can argue about the beginning of this, but the real and currently is becoming the mainstream of micro hydro development in Indonesia is the technology transfer of cross flow turbine back in early 90’s or late 80’s. Before that time frame government has tried to import technologies from Germany using BPPT’s capacity, in the late 70’s manufacturing capacities have been developed into state owned companies such as Barata, but all did not sustain (there are many reasons but cheap oil price might played the bigger role in it). They ended up as projects without any internalization of the technology. Right now the cross flow technology has reached its peak in Indonesia. It took almost 20 years to develop from zero to the condition right now (although one has to admit that the advance development is only limited to Bandung manufacturers such as Heksa, Cihanjuang and Kramatraya). So, I would say the realistic time frame is 20 years for the next leap. I might be conservative with this time frame because I consider the availability of academic experts that have the capacity in developing micro hydro technology (as the main motor of change in the sector). Like it or not technology must go beyond current status in the next 20 years. Other aspects will be supporting and creating condition for such advancement.

What should be the realistic and achievable target? I would say there are some achievable targets: simpler, reliable and easier to manufacture micro hydro hardware; more implementations not only for rural off grid but also on grid; more dispersed manufacturers; better sustainability of schemes; and better implementation of schemes. Currently the design for simple, reliable and easy to manufacture micro hydro turbine is available therefore it is realistic and achievable. More implementations means there is a need for better policy especially interconnection policy for micro hydro schemes. It is very realistic and is a must actually. More dispersed manufacturer might be the hardest part. Government has to take risks in order to develop new manufacturers so that they can produce quality hardware. Standard has to be established and government has to be strict and stick on its implementation.

Related to all above, the changes in policy, such as interconnection policy, will certainly give significant impact to the progress of micro hydro hardware technology. If there is a positive attitude in the policy there will be a boost in site implementation and local manufacturers will reap the benefit and if the market needs it, they can improve their technology. Not just that, sustainability of the scheme must also be considered. This means all schemes that have been erected must be monitored and supervised if necessary. Government better to prepare a nation wide program that ensures all erected micro hydro scheme are sustainable. Involving all stakeholders is necessary. Academics as the think tank and the source of technological advancement have to make their position strong by doing researches. All have to do their task in a synergistic way.

Last but not least, the roadmap has to be detail and really based on current strength, weaknesses, opportunity and also threads. The one who develops the roadmap has to have vast knowledge of the sector and should know what IPP stands for (i.e. independent power producer).

Cheers

Lessons learned from Brazilian’s Experience

CBS has reported that some blackouts in Brazil (in 2005 and 2007) were caused by some dirty works of bad hackers (see: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/11/brazil/). The recent massive blackout in Brazil might also the result of bad hackers. This happened two days after CBS reported the possible cause of blackouts in 2005 and 2007.

This has clearly shown that computerized system is very vulnerable to electronic attack. It has shown that total integration is very risky. The centralized software managed control system might be very efficient and also easy to monitor but it is also easy to be attacked. There is no perfect system made by mankind. There are always trade offs. In the case of Brazil, the trade off is easiness to be hacked.

Luckily the system in Indonesia might still very old and manual. No hacking system can do much harm to the system. A real “terrorist style” attack on transformer stations might do better. Moving to centralized software managed control system surely takes a lot of energy and resources and PLN has none of them.

Right now PLN is struggling to normalize power generation and distribution in Jakarta. Kompas reported that the scheduled blackouts might still happen until December. We are used to blackouts therefore we actually need an independent power source like for example personal solar powered electricity generator or “dreaming mode on” fuel cell powered electricity generator (like the one in Japan shown in Discovery channel) or anything like that.

Conclusion: since PLN’s financial condition is not yet very healthy, centralized software managed control system might still far from realization. If it were materialized, there should be a manual back up system so that if the software system fails, the manual system can still do the job.

Merdeka…