Micro Hydro Development Roadmap - What to Expect?

Roadmap is basically a schedule for a certain sector to reach certain level. In a roadmap there should be at least time indicator and also milestones for each time indicator. However a roadmap is more complex than just a schedule since all the related milestones bring consequences in all aspects.

For example a roadmap of a bike shop, the main goal is to be the largest bike shop in town in 10 years. The milestones for example are: year one the shop has to sell at least 2 bikes a day; year two the shop has to become authorized distributor for 2 major bike brands and sells 3 bikes a day; year five the store area has to increase from 100 m2 to at least 200 m2 and so on and so on. The consequences that follow that road map can be for example: assess the competitors, develop cycling habits in town, find cheap bicycle supplier, train repair workshops in town, do some cycling activities with local government, increase number of salesmen, develop innovative financial support for bike owners etc.. To be concluded, there are many to do to materialize the roadmap.

Right now the government of Indonesia, especially Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources wants to create a roadmap for micro hydro power. I have not got my hand on it therefore these will be my expectations towards the roadmap. My expectations are:

• The roadmap must have realistic time frame
• The roadmap must have realistic and achievable targets
• The roadmap must not only considering micro hydro technology but also all related policy, standard, education, supporting activities, capacity of industry etc. that will eventually help to develop the market.

What’s a realistic time frame? To my knowledge, developing micro hydro competence in Indonesia took quite long time. Anyone can argue about the beginning of this, but the real and currently is becoming the mainstream of micro hydro development in Indonesia is the technology transfer of cross flow turbine back in early 90’s or late 80’s. Before that time frame government has tried to import technologies from Germany using BPPT’s capacity, in the late 70’s manufacturing capacities have been developed into state owned companies such as Barata, but all did not sustain (there are many reasons but cheap oil price might played the bigger role in it). They ended up as projects without any internalization of the technology. Right now the cross flow technology has reached its peak in Indonesia. It took almost 20 years to develop from zero to the condition right now (although one has to admit that the advance development is only limited to Bandung manufacturers such as Heksa, Cihanjuang and Kramatraya). So, I would say the realistic time frame is 20 years for the next leap. I might be conservative with this time frame because I consider the availability of academic experts that have the capacity in developing micro hydro technology (as the main motor of change in the sector). Like it or not technology must go beyond current status in the next 20 years. Other aspects will be supporting and creating condition for such advancement.

What should be the realistic and achievable target? I would say there are some achievable targets: simpler, reliable and easier to manufacture micro hydro hardware; more implementations not only for rural off grid but also on grid; more dispersed manufacturers; better sustainability of schemes; and better implementation of schemes. Currently the design for simple, reliable and easy to manufacture micro hydro turbine is available therefore it is realistic and achievable. More implementations means there is a need for better policy especially interconnection policy for micro hydro schemes. It is very realistic and is a must actually. More dispersed manufacturer might be the hardest part. Government has to take risks in order to develop new manufacturers so that they can produce quality hardware. Standard has to be established and government has to be strict and stick on its implementation.

Related to all above, the changes in policy, such as interconnection policy, will certainly give significant impact to the progress of micro hydro hardware technology. If there is a positive attitude in the policy there will be a boost in site implementation and local manufacturers will reap the benefit and if the market needs it, they can improve their technology. Not just that, sustainability of the scheme must also be considered. This means all schemes that have been erected must be monitored and supervised if necessary. Government better to prepare a nation wide program that ensures all erected micro hydro scheme are sustainable. Involving all stakeholders is necessary. Academics as the think tank and the source of technological advancement have to make their position strong by doing researches. All have to do their task in a synergistic way.

Last but not least, the roadmap has to be detail and really based on current strength, weaknesses, opportunity and also threads. The one who develops the roadmap has to have vast knowledge of the sector and should know what IPP stands for (i.e. independent power producer).

Cheers

Lessons learned from Brazilian’s Experience

CBS has reported that some blackouts in Brazil (in 2005 and 2007) were caused by some dirty works of bad hackers (see: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/11/brazil/). The recent massive blackout in Brazil might also the result of bad hackers. This happened two days after CBS reported the possible cause of blackouts in 2005 and 2007.

This has clearly shown that computerized system is very vulnerable to electronic attack. It has shown that total integration is very risky. The centralized software managed control system might be very efficient and also easy to monitor but it is also easy to be attacked. There is no perfect system made by mankind. There are always trade offs. In the case of Brazil, the trade off is easiness to be hacked.

Luckily the system in Indonesia might still very old and manual. No hacking system can do much harm to the system. A real “terrorist style” attack on transformer stations might do better. Moving to centralized software managed control system surely takes a lot of energy and resources and PLN has none of them.

Right now PLN is struggling to normalize power generation and distribution in Jakarta. Kompas reported that the scheduled blackouts might still happen until December. We are used to blackouts therefore we actually need an independent power source like for example personal solar powered electricity generator or “dreaming mode on” fuel cell powered electricity generator (like the one in Japan shown in Discovery channel) or anything like that.

Conclusion: since PLN’s financial condition is not yet very healthy, centralized software managed control system might still far from realization. If it were materialized, there should be a manual back up system so that if the software system fails, the manual system can still do the job.

Merdeka…

Renewable energy: is it not attractive enough for higher education institution?

Renewable energy is currently on the upper side of the coin. The support from government for renewable energy projects is quite significant. From policy point of view, there are also some progresses. Private enterprises are also in the sector for example in the mini hydro sector. This has shown a strong growth of renewable energy.

Despite the significant growth, there are some dark sides in the sector. Not all sub sectors are developed from technological point of view. Solar energy systems are still imported either from China, Japan or Europe. Biomass technology, for example gasification, is not yet developed and the application is very low. Biomass conversion to bio fuel is developing quite significantly. Technology is basically in hand, however innovation is still lacking. Hydro energy, especially for bigger size plants are still importing while at micro level, local technology is already used extensively. In general, Indonesia is still depending on foreign technology.

Depending on foreign technology is not inline with the goal to be energy independent country. If one wants to be independent, then he/she must master the subject (in this case the technology). In the worst case, other country is not willing to sell technology to Indonesia that eventually will hamper the utilization of renewable energy sources and making Indonesia dependent on fossil fuel. Economically this scenario is very frightening.

Let us use micro hydro sub sector as an example. Micro hydro turbine manufacturers in Indonesia are generally manufacturing cross flow, propeller and pelton turbine. Cross flow is the most produced turbine due to easiness to manufacture and average characteristic of micro hydro site in Indonesia falls in the head range of cross flow. In Bandung, manufacturers are supervised by foreign expert therefore they are not 100% independent from foreign influences (in this case foreign capacity in designing turbine). The guidance of foreign expert has made Bandung based manufacturers capable in producing high quality hardware.

Producers outside Bandung have to struggle by themselves. They have to play with their own design. They have to live with the fact that their product might not be as good as Bandung’s. The impact of this condition is potential of frequent break downs of their hardware. This will affect the whole process of renewable energy implementation. Bad hardware gives bad name to micro hydro.

Actually to tackle above mentioned issue, universities can play big role. Universities are the place for research. Academics should be able to innovate especially for renewable energy implementation. Using the same case, micro hydro, almost no higher education institutions do research on micro hydro (e.g. turbine design). Turbine design is not simple. It involves many subjects starting from fluid dynamics to mechanics. It is not just welding metal parts together but also optimizing runner design for better performance. This kind of work should not be done by manufacturers. Universities or research institution must do this. If those that suppose to be centre of knowledge and progress do not do anything on that particular subject, then being energy independent is far from reality.

Why the interest is very little interests or even none? I can only assume here. Maybe because the market is not yet very commercial, therefore private industry is still very limited. Universities are inclined to do research on certain subject if there were any driving force from the market. If the industry is not yet developed then the chance for research in certain subject is also limited. I think this way of thinking is not appropriate. Research will attract industry to join in and make the sector grows.

The second possibility is that universities might see renewable energy technology as not as complicated as other kind of technology such as IT or telecommunication or bio technology or other rocket science things. In Indonesia, there is this funny principle: you will look great and advance if you are using complicated things such as complicated words, complicated gadget, complicated lecture materials etc. So, doing research in simple subjects might be considered as below standard and not making someone great. Although actually, doing research for micro hydro turbine is also a complicated matter.

Another possibility is that because there is no communication between universities and industry (renewable energy industry). Since there is no communication, the need of the industry is not known and university can not match their research resources to what the industry needs. Lack of research fund can also make things worse. The worst possibility is if there are no experts in the subject. This is the worst scenario. No one can do anything without expertise.

Since currently government role is very big, they should not limit their involvement in project implementation but also in research. But before doing so, the government should know the current position and future dream. Based on that information government should know who can do what in the sector. Investment in the form of research initiative will be useful for the purpose of energy independency. This will work as long as the money is not for corruption and the researcher is really capable in the particular subject.

Peace

Tough Choice: Hardware Quality or More MHP schemes (continued)

continuing the last blog post...

The fifth aspect concerns about financing. price factors could be a determinant of an MHP project implementation. current MHP project implementation is dominated by the government financing. The implementation process of government projects is always through the tender process. Tender process emphasizes the principle of "least cost". This means that whoever is the least expensive will get the contract. Although the specification has been determined in the tender document, but they are very general and can not cover quality issue except for poewr output. There are risks in this process and the risk was mainly caused by quality problems. If the government has a limited amount of budget, then simpler MHP schemes will be the only options since they can be cheaply implemented. the more MHP schemes constructed the better for electrification ratio.

The sixth aspect is government's political goal especially in the energy sector particularly rural electrification. Goal or target to be achieved by the government, is in general the increase of electrification ratio. For Indonesia the increase electrification ratio is very relevant since electrification ratio is still low. MHP is not the only one solution to increase the electrification ratio, but MHP is one of the solutions that can significantly increase electrification ratio. This means that with the same amount of funds, the number of households that will be electrified can more than other solutions such as solar home systems. With limited funds the government must race against time to increase the electrification ratio. The more MHP scheme are built the more funding is needed. If quality is sacrificed a bit, then there will be more MHP can be built and thus significantly increasing electrification ratio.

Of some aspects of the above, it seems that the goal to increase electrification ratio is of the dominant prime mover. The government has a time limit to reach a certain electrification ratio (if they have??). With limited funds, there is a tendency to optimize the available fund and therefore "least cost" option is chosen. The consequence of this might be the sacrifice of MHP hardware quality.

to my opinion, the way the government develop the sector will boost the growth of MHP hardware industry. New manufacturers can emerge in many places in Indonesia. although sustainability of the scheme might seem to be sacrificed by using less quality hardware, but sustainability still can be achieved by strong social cohesiveness. hardware is a precondition and social plus environmental aspects are important requirements for sustainable MHP scheme.

the government at the end has to decide that the industry has to move on to next level (e.g. quality wise). this means the product quality must be better, the product must perform better, the production method must be better, the skill of technician must be better, and the product must be reliable. good products will open up more opportunities to the people that get the MHP scheme to have better economic condition.

currently there are advance MHP hardware producer in indonesia, they have to keep the commitment to quality. for new manufacturers they have to develop them selves to improve their product quality. the role of government is very strong. government has to set minimun quality standard of MHP hardware. government has to support new manufacturers by using their products as long as they are meeting the minimum standard. government must also support industry to improve their production method, technician's skill, new hardware technology etc. cooperation with higher education institution cal also support the effort as long as the institution has strong background on MHP technology. the current introduction of public domain cross flow turbine design is a good start.

Finally, since government's role is very big, a clearly defined program and goals must be made available. The program should be based on current conditions and look ahead to what the sector wants. currently there are some projects (nation wide) that are closely related to MHP sector. government can put one or more of its goal into each project and the project will try to achieve it based on their available resources. what we need now is clearly defined program and clear understanding of strength, weaknesses, opportunities and thread.

may the sector develops in a better way.

Tough Choice: Hardware Quality or More MHP schemes

Development of micro hydro power (MHP) in Indonesia is so far encouraging. Encouraging in the sense that there are more and more MHP applications in Indonesia implemented by government institutions such as the local energy offices at the provincial or district level, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources, the Ministry of disadvantaged areas and other national or local programs.

The consequence of this is the increasing demand for better MHP hardware especially for turbine and control equipment. It is also necessary in to also have qualified expertise in MHP planning. MHP construction is not as easy as installing solar home system (SHS). Planning is the key element of a good MHP scheme. Once wrong planning is implemented, it will be fatal later on. Related to hardware issue, there are still some questions: how many producers are there in Indonesia? how good their products are? can they provide for hardware MHP demand? how important the hardware quality for the project owner? and many other questions. These questions ultimately come down to one important question: is the quality a priority?

High quality in general can be interpreted as reliability, durability, good performance, and usually also means higher price. high quality of workmanship demands a good production method, the skillful labor, and of good working tools. high quality can also be associated with more complicated production process that it eventually could encourage an increase in the level of hardware technology. This can further encourage research in the specific topic.

With the strong government's determination to increase the electrification ratio by using renewable energy, then there is a tendency to carry out as many MHP projects in Indonesia, especially in remote areas that are not electrified by PLN. if planning is not a problem, in the sense that they are done well and correctly, then the next question is the selection of hardware. Is quality hardware needed or not? There are no simplified answer for this, because there are consequences that must be accepted and there are sacrifices that must be taken. There are some aspects that might be influenced by the choice of hardware.

The first aspect is the sustainability of MHP. MHP will be eventually damaged if not properly maintained properly. Based on the assumption that good maintenance is performed by qualified personell, the equipment will operate better and only need spare part replacement after a longer period. this means that the risk of break down is also less and eventually it will improve the sustainability of MHP scheme.

The second aspect is the issue of MHP service. Based on the assumption that water resources available at design rate, higher quality hardware will produce more electrical energy (kW). High output means more people can be served or service levels can be improved (watts per house for example). It will open more economic potential for the people. Other than that, generally the quality of electrical energy generated is also better so as to enhance the level of the MHP service quality.

The third aspect is the potential of monopoly and limited production capacities. By not disparaging other MHP turbine manufacturers in Indonesia, producers in Bandung are in the front line of quality. Although not all producers in Bandung are strictly apply the principle of quality, but generally in terms of work quality and hardware performance, they are much better. If all are requesting hardware from Bandung, then there will be a big production pressure for them. This condition can lead to two negative things: potential of monopoly and lower hardware quality due to shorter time in the production process. The first potential negative impact will eventually affect other producers in Indonesia, they can not develop and improve their production skill.

The fourth aspect is the after sales service. A good after-sale is responsive and quick. it can be achieved if there is a representative of the manufacturer in the area or the producer himself in the area. After sales will be a bit problematic if the manufacturer is located quite far from the user. MHP hardware products are not OTC products. They are customized to client’s need. They are not mass product and the market is very specific. Having a representative in all areas will be just very expensive to the small scale manufacturers in Indonesia. It is therefore, more manufacturers all over Indonesia might be a good solution for better after sales service.

to be continued.....