Translation of GOOD & BAD of Mini Hydro Power

GOOD & BAD of Mini Hydro Power (can be downloaded at the following link), will be available at least in 5 other languages (Cambodian, Laotian, Vietnamese, Indonesian and French). Two translation processes (into Vietnamese and Indonesian) are already on going while the other three are still in the administration process. If someone wants to translate into local language, he/she can contact ASEAN-Centre for Energy for the detail.

Important requirement for translation is that the quality of translation must be at top level so that it does not reduce the quality or meaning of the contents of the original English version.

ASEAN Centre for Energy
ASEAN Centre for Energy Building, 6^th Floor
Jl. HR. Rasuna Said Blok X-2, Kav. 07-08 Kuningan, Jakarta-12950, Indonesia
Tel. (62-21) 527 9332 · Fax. (62-21) 527 9350
Email. info@aseanenergy.org

Development Boom in Renewable Energy Sector in the Next 5 years?

A new ministerial decree is coming on 13th November 2009 (31/2009). I guess, this is a part of the government’s 100 days program especially from Department of Energy and Mineral Resources. The new ministerial decree is concerning the feed in tariff for renewable energy generators with capacity less than 10 MW or excess power. The new decree automatically cancels the infant ministerial decree number 5/2009 that was just released few months ago.

What’s the main characteristic of this new decree? It is the feed in price. For generators interconnected to medium voltage (I guess it is 20 kV), the averaged feed in price is 656 IDR/kWh for Java Bali area (factor = 1). For generators interconnected to low voltage (I guess it is 400 V), the averaged feed in price is 1004 IDR/kWh for Java Bali area (factor = 1). For islands other than Java Bali there are some multiplication factors (e.g. Sumatera and Sulawesi is 1.2; Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara (East and West) is 1.3; and Papua is 1.5).

I guess the “staging” concept is still valid. This means in the first 5 or 7 years the developer can get higher feed in price (compared to the averaged price) and in the rest of the contract time, developer will get lower feed in price (compared to the averaged price).

It seems the procedure will be shortened since PLN is obliged to prepare a standardized contract form. This means there is no negotiation (also looking at the set price above). Implementation of projects will hopefully be faster unless PLN applies hard requirements for developers such as for example EBITDA 30% for the last 2 years (maybe PLN itself can not achieve this, although PLN’s move might be based on very rational reason such as preventing PPA holder from being brokers (selling PPA contracts) instead of being serious renewable energy generator developer).

Feed in price problem, that was, some weeks ago, still perceived as problem by some MHP developers is solved. This, according to association of mini hydro developers, is considered as a very good step and it expects a boom of MHP development in the next 3-5 years. The association predicts that the boom can reach 500 MW per year and that will make the industry facing a new problem. How to provide the hardware?

Currently MHP developers are mostly using Chinese or European hardware for their MHP schemes. Chinese products are very much having many varieties of quality. It corresponds with the price. European products usually have consistent quality standard, this means cost is very much fixed (i.e. quite high). There is also new Indonesian manufacturer that has just started into MHP hardware business (turbine) in MW scale. The next challenge to the government is to provide local manufacturers more capacities so that they can benefit from the MHP boom in the next 3-4 years. If local manufacturers can not move fast, all the benefits will go abroad and the overall goal of the new ministerial decree is missed.

The old decree (e.g. 1122/2002) set lower feed in price for interconnection at low voltage (0.6 times marginal cost of production at interconnection point). This new decree sets higher feed in price for interconnection at low voltage. Does this move is a strategy to encourage micro renewable energy generators? I guess this is to encourage such things. However the procedure should be very much shortened for the micro size since, I guess, it will be community based or very small private companies or cooperatives that might not have enough resources to pay the high transaction cost (relative) of interconnection process.

Anyway, although this was quite late (all energy minister should have done this years ago), but this decree is mostly welcomed by players in the sector. They have positive opinion on this and expecting that there will be a boom in the sector. Hydro power might lead the boom since the technology and also resources are already available and assessed so often.

Let's hope for positive development and prepare the necessary actions to tackle possible problems due to this decree.

Micro Hydro Development Roadmap - What to Expect?

Roadmap is basically a schedule for a certain sector to reach certain level. In a roadmap there should be at least time indicator and also milestones for each time indicator. However a roadmap is more complex than just a schedule since all the related milestones bring consequences in all aspects.

For example a roadmap of a bike shop, the main goal is to be the largest bike shop in town in 10 years. The milestones for example are: year one the shop has to sell at least 2 bikes a day; year two the shop has to become authorized distributor for 2 major bike brands and sells 3 bikes a day; year five the store area has to increase from 100 m2 to at least 200 m2 and so on and so on. The consequences that follow that road map can be for example: assess the competitors, develop cycling habits in town, find cheap bicycle supplier, train repair workshops in town, do some cycling activities with local government, increase number of salesmen, develop innovative financial support for bike owners etc.. To be concluded, there are many to do to materialize the roadmap.

Right now the government of Indonesia, especially Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources wants to create a roadmap for micro hydro power. I have not got my hand on it therefore these will be my expectations towards the roadmap. My expectations are:

• The roadmap must have realistic time frame
• The roadmap must have realistic and achievable targets
• The roadmap must not only considering micro hydro technology but also all related policy, standard, education, supporting activities, capacity of industry etc. that will eventually help to develop the market.

What’s a realistic time frame? To my knowledge, developing micro hydro competence in Indonesia took quite long time. Anyone can argue about the beginning of this, but the real and currently is becoming the mainstream of micro hydro development in Indonesia is the technology transfer of cross flow turbine back in early 90’s or late 80’s. Before that time frame government has tried to import technologies from Germany using BPPT’s capacity, in the late 70’s manufacturing capacities have been developed into state owned companies such as Barata, but all did not sustain (there are many reasons but cheap oil price might played the bigger role in it). They ended up as projects without any internalization of the technology. Right now the cross flow technology has reached its peak in Indonesia. It took almost 20 years to develop from zero to the condition right now (although one has to admit that the advance development is only limited to Bandung manufacturers such as Heksa, Cihanjuang and Kramatraya). So, I would say the realistic time frame is 20 years for the next leap. I might be conservative with this time frame because I consider the availability of academic experts that have the capacity in developing micro hydro technology (as the main motor of change in the sector). Like it or not technology must go beyond current status in the next 20 years. Other aspects will be supporting and creating condition for such advancement.

What should be the realistic and achievable target? I would say there are some achievable targets: simpler, reliable and easier to manufacture micro hydro hardware; more implementations not only for rural off grid but also on grid; more dispersed manufacturers; better sustainability of schemes; and better implementation of schemes. Currently the design for simple, reliable and easy to manufacture micro hydro turbine is available therefore it is realistic and achievable. More implementations means there is a need for better policy especially interconnection policy for micro hydro schemes. It is very realistic and is a must actually. More dispersed manufacturer might be the hardest part. Government has to take risks in order to develop new manufacturers so that they can produce quality hardware. Standard has to be established and government has to be strict and stick on its implementation.

Related to all above, the changes in policy, such as interconnection policy, will certainly give significant impact to the progress of micro hydro hardware technology. If there is a positive attitude in the policy there will be a boost in site implementation and local manufacturers will reap the benefit and if the market needs it, they can improve their technology. Not just that, sustainability of the scheme must also be considered. This means all schemes that have been erected must be monitored and supervised if necessary. Government better to prepare a nation wide program that ensures all erected micro hydro scheme are sustainable. Involving all stakeholders is necessary. Academics as the think tank and the source of technological advancement have to make their position strong by doing researches. All have to do their task in a synergistic way.

Last but not least, the roadmap has to be detail and really based on current strength, weaknesses, opportunity and also threads. The one who develops the roadmap has to have vast knowledge of the sector and should know what IPP stands for (i.e. independent power producer).

Cheers

Lessons learned from Brazilian’s Experience

CBS has reported that some blackouts in Brazil (in 2005 and 2007) were caused by some dirty works of bad hackers (see: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/11/brazil/). The recent massive blackout in Brazil might also the result of bad hackers. This happened two days after CBS reported the possible cause of blackouts in 2005 and 2007.

This has clearly shown that computerized system is very vulnerable to electronic attack. It has shown that total integration is very risky. The centralized software managed control system might be very efficient and also easy to monitor but it is also easy to be attacked. There is no perfect system made by mankind. There are always trade offs. In the case of Brazil, the trade off is easiness to be hacked.

Luckily the system in Indonesia might still very old and manual. No hacking system can do much harm to the system. A real “terrorist style” attack on transformer stations might do better. Moving to centralized software managed control system surely takes a lot of energy and resources and PLN has none of them.

Right now PLN is struggling to normalize power generation and distribution in Jakarta. Kompas reported that the scheduled blackouts might still happen until December. We are used to blackouts therefore we actually need an independent power source like for example personal solar powered electricity generator or “dreaming mode on” fuel cell powered electricity generator (like the one in Japan shown in Discovery channel) or anything like that.

Conclusion: since PLN’s financial condition is not yet very healthy, centralized software managed control system might still far from realization. If it were materialized, there should be a manual back up system so that if the software system fails, the manual system can still do the job.

Merdeka…

Renewable energy: is it not attractive enough for higher education institution?

Renewable energy is currently on the upper side of the coin. The support from government for renewable energy projects is quite significant. From policy point of view, there are also some progresses. Private enterprises are also in the sector for example in the mini hydro sector. This has shown a strong growth of renewable energy.

Despite the significant growth, there are some dark sides in the sector. Not all sub sectors are developed from technological point of view. Solar energy systems are still imported either from China, Japan or Europe. Biomass technology, for example gasification, is not yet developed and the application is very low. Biomass conversion to bio fuel is developing quite significantly. Technology is basically in hand, however innovation is still lacking. Hydro energy, especially for bigger size plants are still importing while at micro level, local technology is already used extensively. In general, Indonesia is still depending on foreign technology.

Depending on foreign technology is not inline with the goal to be energy independent country. If one wants to be independent, then he/she must master the subject (in this case the technology). In the worst case, other country is not willing to sell technology to Indonesia that eventually will hamper the utilization of renewable energy sources and making Indonesia dependent on fossil fuel. Economically this scenario is very frightening.

Let us use micro hydro sub sector as an example. Micro hydro turbine manufacturers in Indonesia are generally manufacturing cross flow, propeller and pelton turbine. Cross flow is the most produced turbine due to easiness to manufacture and average characteristic of micro hydro site in Indonesia falls in the head range of cross flow. In Bandung, manufacturers are supervised by foreign expert therefore they are not 100% independent from foreign influences (in this case foreign capacity in designing turbine). The guidance of foreign expert has made Bandung based manufacturers capable in producing high quality hardware.

Producers outside Bandung have to struggle by themselves. They have to play with their own design. They have to live with the fact that their product might not be as good as Bandung’s. The impact of this condition is potential of frequent break downs of their hardware. This will affect the whole process of renewable energy implementation. Bad hardware gives bad name to micro hydro.

Actually to tackle above mentioned issue, universities can play big role. Universities are the place for research. Academics should be able to innovate especially for renewable energy implementation. Using the same case, micro hydro, almost no higher education institutions do research on micro hydro (e.g. turbine design). Turbine design is not simple. It involves many subjects starting from fluid dynamics to mechanics. It is not just welding metal parts together but also optimizing runner design for better performance. This kind of work should not be done by manufacturers. Universities or research institution must do this. If those that suppose to be centre of knowledge and progress do not do anything on that particular subject, then being energy independent is far from reality.

Why the interest is very little interests or even none? I can only assume here. Maybe because the market is not yet very commercial, therefore private industry is still very limited. Universities are inclined to do research on certain subject if there were any driving force from the market. If the industry is not yet developed then the chance for research in certain subject is also limited. I think this way of thinking is not appropriate. Research will attract industry to join in and make the sector grows.

The second possibility is that universities might see renewable energy technology as not as complicated as other kind of technology such as IT or telecommunication or bio technology or other rocket science things. In Indonesia, there is this funny principle: you will look great and advance if you are using complicated things such as complicated words, complicated gadget, complicated lecture materials etc. So, doing research in simple subjects might be considered as below standard and not making someone great. Although actually, doing research for micro hydro turbine is also a complicated matter.

Another possibility is that because there is no communication between universities and industry (renewable energy industry). Since there is no communication, the need of the industry is not known and university can not match their research resources to what the industry needs. Lack of research fund can also make things worse. The worst possibility is if there are no experts in the subject. This is the worst scenario. No one can do anything without expertise.

Since currently government role is very big, they should not limit their involvement in project implementation but also in research. But before doing so, the government should know the current position and future dream. Based on that information government should know who can do what in the sector. Investment in the form of research initiative will be useful for the purpose of energy independency. This will work as long as the money is not for corruption and the researcher is really capable in the particular subject.

Peace

Tough Choice: Hardware Quality or More MHP schemes (continued)

continuing the last blog post...

The fifth aspect concerns about financing. price factors could be a determinant of an MHP project implementation. current MHP project implementation is dominated by the government financing. The implementation process of government projects is always through the tender process. Tender process emphasizes the principle of "least cost". This means that whoever is the least expensive will get the contract. Although the specification has been determined in the tender document, but they are very general and can not cover quality issue except for poewr output. There are risks in this process and the risk was mainly caused by quality problems. If the government has a limited amount of budget, then simpler MHP schemes will be the only options since they can be cheaply implemented. the more MHP schemes constructed the better for electrification ratio.

The sixth aspect is government's political goal especially in the energy sector particularly rural electrification. Goal or target to be achieved by the government, is in general the increase of electrification ratio. For Indonesia the increase electrification ratio is very relevant since electrification ratio is still low. MHP is not the only one solution to increase the electrification ratio, but MHP is one of the solutions that can significantly increase electrification ratio. This means that with the same amount of funds, the number of households that will be electrified can more than other solutions such as solar home systems. With limited funds the government must race against time to increase the electrification ratio. The more MHP scheme are built the more funding is needed. If quality is sacrificed a bit, then there will be more MHP can be built and thus significantly increasing electrification ratio.

Of some aspects of the above, it seems that the goal to increase electrification ratio is of the dominant prime mover. The government has a time limit to reach a certain electrification ratio (if they have??). With limited funds, there is a tendency to optimize the available fund and therefore "least cost" option is chosen. The consequence of this might be the sacrifice of MHP hardware quality.

to my opinion, the way the government develop the sector will boost the growth of MHP hardware industry. New manufacturers can emerge in many places in Indonesia. although sustainability of the scheme might seem to be sacrificed by using less quality hardware, but sustainability still can be achieved by strong social cohesiveness. hardware is a precondition and social plus environmental aspects are important requirements for sustainable MHP scheme.

the government at the end has to decide that the industry has to move on to next level (e.g. quality wise). this means the product quality must be better, the product must perform better, the production method must be better, the skill of technician must be better, and the product must be reliable. good products will open up more opportunities to the people that get the MHP scheme to have better economic condition.

currently there are advance MHP hardware producer in indonesia, they have to keep the commitment to quality. for new manufacturers they have to develop them selves to improve their product quality. the role of government is very strong. government has to set minimun quality standard of MHP hardware. government has to support new manufacturers by using their products as long as they are meeting the minimum standard. government must also support industry to improve their production method, technician's skill, new hardware technology etc. cooperation with higher education institution cal also support the effort as long as the institution has strong background on MHP technology. the current introduction of public domain cross flow turbine design is a good start.

Finally, since government's role is very big, a clearly defined program and goals must be made available. The program should be based on current conditions and look ahead to what the sector wants. currently there are some projects (nation wide) that are closely related to MHP sector. government can put one or more of its goal into each project and the project will try to achieve it based on their available resources. what we need now is clearly defined program and clear understanding of strength, weaknesses, opportunities and thread.

may the sector develops in a better way.

Tough Choice: Hardware Quality or More MHP schemes

Development of micro hydro power (MHP) in Indonesia is so far encouraging. Encouraging in the sense that there are more and more MHP applications in Indonesia implemented by government institutions such as the local energy offices at the provincial or district level, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources, the Ministry of disadvantaged areas and other national or local programs.

The consequence of this is the increasing demand for better MHP hardware especially for turbine and control equipment. It is also necessary in to also have qualified expertise in MHP planning. MHP construction is not as easy as installing solar home system (SHS). Planning is the key element of a good MHP scheme. Once wrong planning is implemented, it will be fatal later on. Related to hardware issue, there are still some questions: how many producers are there in Indonesia? how good their products are? can they provide for hardware MHP demand? how important the hardware quality for the project owner? and many other questions. These questions ultimately come down to one important question: is the quality a priority?

High quality in general can be interpreted as reliability, durability, good performance, and usually also means higher price. high quality of workmanship demands a good production method, the skillful labor, and of good working tools. high quality can also be associated with more complicated production process that it eventually could encourage an increase in the level of hardware technology. This can further encourage research in the specific topic.

With the strong government's determination to increase the electrification ratio by using renewable energy, then there is a tendency to carry out as many MHP projects in Indonesia, especially in remote areas that are not electrified by PLN. if planning is not a problem, in the sense that they are done well and correctly, then the next question is the selection of hardware. Is quality hardware needed or not? There are no simplified answer for this, because there are consequences that must be accepted and there are sacrifices that must be taken. There are some aspects that might be influenced by the choice of hardware.

The first aspect is the sustainability of MHP. MHP will be eventually damaged if not properly maintained properly. Based on the assumption that good maintenance is performed by qualified personell, the equipment will operate better and only need spare part replacement after a longer period. this means that the risk of break down is also less and eventually it will improve the sustainability of MHP scheme.

The second aspect is the issue of MHP service. Based on the assumption that water resources available at design rate, higher quality hardware will produce more electrical energy (kW). High output means more people can be served or service levels can be improved (watts per house for example). It will open more economic potential for the people. Other than that, generally the quality of electrical energy generated is also better so as to enhance the level of the MHP service quality.

The third aspect is the potential of monopoly and limited production capacities. By not disparaging other MHP turbine manufacturers in Indonesia, producers in Bandung are in the front line of quality. Although not all producers in Bandung are strictly apply the principle of quality, but generally in terms of work quality and hardware performance, they are much better. If all are requesting hardware from Bandung, then there will be a big production pressure for them. This condition can lead to two negative things: potential of monopoly and lower hardware quality due to shorter time in the production process. The first potential negative impact will eventually affect other producers in Indonesia, they can not develop and improve their production skill.

The fourth aspect is the after sales service. A good after-sale is responsive and quick. it can be achieved if there is a representative of the manufacturer in the area or the producer himself in the area. After sales will be a bit problematic if the manufacturer is located quite far from the user. MHP hardware products are not OTC products. They are customized to client’s need. They are not mass product and the market is very specific. Having a representative in all areas will be just very expensive to the small scale manufacturers in Indonesia. It is therefore, more manufacturers all over Indonesia might be a good solution for better after sales service.

to be continued.....

E-Toll: why is it rather slow?

In the last 1 week, I drive to office via city toll road. I drive from Jatiasih (Jakarta Outer Ring Road), pass small part of Jagorawi toll, and get in to the Jakarta Inner City Toll road. Starting 19 of October, there is an interesting thing happening at Cililitan Ramp. There are two special toll payment gates that are using E-Toll Card. They are suppose to be an automatic gate. User use the E-toll card by putting the card close to the reader, get the print out receipt and drive into the toll road. People using that gates should at least get out of the gate faster than the normal cash payment gates. However, as far as I observe, the gate is even slower than the normal cash payment gate. Once I counted 14 seconds to finish one transaction at the e-toll gate. the standard time for cash transaction is 10 seconds (or maybe faster). this has caused delays and longer queue in the gate. the e-toll gate should be a faster option of the ramp, but i failed so far.

What have caused that sluggishness? There are at least two options that eventually lead to the technology. E-toll card uses different type of machine to read it. It is not like credit card or debit card that use swipe machine. E-toll card only needs to be "in touch" with the reader. The process should take very short time (2-3 seconds) and the transaction is done. It is true that after the transaction (payment and money is deducted) the gate is opening, but usually the car stays there maybe to get the printout of the receipt. The gap of the system might be in the printing stage. The whole system is actually quite complicated. It has to integrate car identification system (whether it is a small passenger car, bus, or trucks) and payment system. So far the installed one only handles small passenger car (type 1), so the complication is reduced. The system should work faster because it is not (yet) very complicated. The system integrator or designer has failed to provide fast reliable automatic gate system.

The second reason why the e-toll gate is so slow is because of its potential to replace manual gate operators. Can you imagine how many people will have to leave the job if the automation works fine? I do not know. Maybe hundreds of people directly in the job and thousands of people depending on them will be affected. Using this automatic gate will surely cut jobs and create unemployment.

The second reason might not have very strong technical relation to the slowness of automatic toll gate, but the potential condition can make certain people do something or more things strange, like tempering the machine so that it does not work properly. I hope, my second guess is not happening and the reason for slowness is purely technical reason.

Anyway, I am still waiting for better public transport so that I do not have to drive 60-70 kilometers per day. Bike? Let’s see. I am rather old to do it.

New Electricity Bill - Is It Better?

New bill just passed by house of representative yesterday (8/9/09). The new bill is regulating electricity sector. If the president does not sign it, then the bill will not be implemented.

The main feature of this new bill is that regions are given freedom to have their own electricity utility. This is true mainly for areas not in PLN's (Indonesia's Utility) service area. As far as I observed, this bill is just another way for the government to escape from the obligation. Government has to provide energy for the underprivileged communities/areas as mandated in the Energy Bill (30/2007). Since regional governments are basically/usually have little knowledge on the sector and low financial capacity to provide electricity to remote areas or underprivileged areas (that usually are not in the PLN's service area) then there will be no electrification for underprivileged areas. There is no incentive for private sector to get in since providing electricity to remote area means a loss. And if there are areas that are interesting enough for private sector (with local government) to establish a local utility, then the tariff might be very high and eventually gives hard time for economic development. The new bill will not achieve anything except more confusion and chaos. If the president is dare enough, he will not sign the bill.

What we need now is energy conservation and stronger law enforcement on this matter. Better rational use of energy and not wasting rare resources.

GOOD & BAD of Mini Hydro Power

ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) through one of its programmes, ASEAN-German Mini Hydro Project (AGMHP), has just soft released their new publication. The new publication is a two volumes picture book containing good and bad practices in developing micro hydro power scheme, especially for rural electrification. The picture book is not yet officially launched, therefore in their website (http://agmhp.aseanenergy.org) only some samples are provided. The samples look promising. There are two chapters uploaded. Full version of the book can be downloaded as soon as the book is officially launched. There might be possibility to directly request the book to AGMHP (maybe at small cost).

I, fortunately, just got the two volumes at hand. They are fantastic. You can expect common failures in developing micro hydro shown in the book (note: cases are mostly coming from Indonesia experience). The book can suddenly make you an expert of micro hydro, and that is the real danger of this book. This book is actually informational in nature. It is not intended by the writer and by AGMHP that as soon as somebody reads the book he/she can become an expert. An expert needs proper education and also long and various field experiences.

This case reminds of a university teacher I met some months ago in a focused group discussion. This guy (he comes from reputable institute in Bandung) said that he already made more than 100 feasibility studies of micro hydro without even visiting the sites. He relies of Google Earth!! That's shocking. Every micro hydro has its own characteristics and one can only see and find it out when one is at the site taking measurements and samples. Google Earth does help, but one cannot rely on it to make a proper justifiable micro hydro feasibility study.

This GOOD&BAD book does not make someone an expert of micro hydro. He or she might later on able to criticize mistakes, but to give solution might be no, unless he/she gets proper education on the specific issue. Anyway, this book is worth to bring along during your visits to micro hydro sites. You can visit the download section of AGMHP website to find out the recent update.

Redefinition of Sustainable

Information technology (electronic, automation, robots, software etc.) has revolutionized the way we live. It is somehow making our lives easier and more convenient, but on the other side it is also slowly destroying our social fundamentals. If we are not careful, the days of the “terminators” are coming and human has to survive in the machine driven world.

Today, 3rd of August 2009, my wife’s company (one of big companies of the US) is going to lay off some staffs. The company does not do lay off due to economic downturn but due to significant change in the “system”. The company sells the product very good in Indonesia. The reason of of the lay offs is just that the company has just used the big software and automated administration system. The new system, although might costly, but reduce human involvement in the administration system. In the long term it reduces a lot of costs and unnecessary problems (very logical !! just like IT use plain logic). The IT has just started ruining some families’ life.

IT is not fair. IT only serves to capitalism. IT supports greed and destroys humanity. A human is at its high value if he/she works and creates and be helpful and be useful for others. IT simplified those important values (as process) for the sake of bigger profit for capital owners. Social fundamentals are destroyed by IT.

I support companies that respect social values and reflecting it in the form of work creation and big employment. It is time to reshape the definition of “sustainable” companies or “green” companies. They should not just focus on the physical environment but also most importantly “social” environment and social values. Socially green company should have direct impact to more people than “environmentally green” electronically automated company. We should buy products from “socially green” company….

Support local products!! Support Indonesian products!!!

8.15 in the morning

8.15 in the morning. the circled area is under the shade. especially the right side (lower right side of the panels) will be under shade the whole day.

New Show....

Those PV panels have been installed there since months ago, and since the beginning there is already this obvious mistake in installation of the panels. Part of the lower panels are in shade and in the morning the shade is even worse because the building I am in is in the east direction of the panels.

The bosses (in my office) have just realized days ago and when there are visitors, he always asks me to step aside and have a look on those panels from my window side. Just like what he did just now. The visitor does not always understand the situation, actually.

Anyway, the decision to install such massive solar panel was not really "correct".

Part of Yes Man that I like

got it from someone...I also like this part..

Micro Hydro Terminologies - Third Batch

The following definitions are also coming from various sources, especially internet sources.

Civil Works

• Axis of dam: A vertical plane or curved surface, appearing as a line in plan or cross section, to which horizontal dimensions can be referred
• Baffle block: One of a series of upright obstructions usually of concrete, constructed in a channel or stilling basin, designed to dissipate the energy of water flowing at high velocity.
• Bedrock: A general term for any solid rock, not exhibiting soil-like properties, that underlies soil or other surficial materials.
• Cofferdam: A temporary barrier, usually an earthen dike, constructed around a worksite in a reservoir or on a stream, so the worksite can be dewatered or the water level controlled so that construction can proceed in the dry
• Dam: A structure to retain water inflows for specific uses
• Earth dam: An embankment dam in which more than the half of the total volume is formed of compacted fine grained material
• Forebay: Impoundment immediately upstream from a dam or hydroelectric plant intake structure.
• Gabion: Wire basket, filled with stones, used to stabilize banks of a water course and to enhance habitat.
• Headrace channel: A free-flow tunnel or open channel which conveys water to the upper end of a penstock (Definition Ref. ICOLD, Tech Dict Dams 1978
• Intake structure: A structure on the upstream dam face for the purpose of directing water into a confined conduit and eventually to the turbines. The intake structure provides for the installation of trashracks and gates to control the water flow.
• Overflow spillway: A spillway on a dam that functions like a dam, but allows water to safely flow over it.
• Power house: Structure that houses turbines, generators, and associated control equipments
• Rock anchor: A steel rod or cable placed in a hole drilled in rock, held in position by grout, mechanical means, or both. Similar to a rock bolt but usually the rock anchor is more than 4 meters long.
• Sand trap: Part of civil construction that has the function to separate the undesired sediment carried by the flow from the water
• Surge tank: An open-surface reservoir of water decreasing the effects of shock pressure waves in the penstock
• Tailrace: A channel for discharging water after the generation of electricity.
• Trust block (anchor block): A massive block of concrete built to withstand a thrust or pull.

Hydro Mechanical

• Expansion joint: A separation between adjoining parts of a concrete or steel structure which is provided to allow small relative movements, such as those caused by temperature changes, to occur independently.
• Gate: A movable, watertight barrier for the control of water in a waterway. See fixed-wheel gate,sluice gate, vertical lift gate, or wicket gate.
• Penstock: a pipeline bringing water under pressure to the turbine
• Sluice gate: A gate that can be opened or closed by sliding in supporting guides.
• Stop logs: Large logs, planks, cut timbers, steel or concrete beams placed on top of each other with their ends held in guides between walls or piers to close an opening in a dam, conduit, spillway, etc., to control the passage of water.
• Trash rack: A metal device placed at the intake structure that prevents floating or submerged debris from entering the intake.
• Manometer: An instrument used for measuring the pressure of liquids and gases

Mechanical Electrical

• Automatic voltage regulator (AVR): It is important part in Synchronous Generators, it controls the output voltage of the generator by controlling its excitation current
• Bearing: Device that supports, guides, and reduces the friction of motion between fixed and moving machine parts
• Bulb-type turbine: A hydroelectric set with its casing containing the generator and turbine immersed in the water flow
• Cavitation: The phenomenon of formation of vapour bubbles of a flowing liquid in a region where the pressure of the liquid falls below its vapour pressure. In devices such as propellers and pumps, cavitation causes a great deal of noise, damage to components, vibrations, and a loss of efficiency.
• Crossflow Turbine: Type of turbine that the water passes through the turbine transversely, or across the turbine blades.
• Electronic Load Controller (ELC): An electronic device that keeps a synchronous generator driven by a Micro Hydro turbine running at constant frequency irrespective of electrical loads
• Erosion: Damages on turbine parts (i.e. runner, needle, nozzle, runner buckets etc.) due to cavitation
• Francis turbine: A hydraulic reaction type turbine with fixed runner blades usually operated from a medium or low head source with medium flow rate
• Generator: Machine that converts mechanical energy into electrical energy.
• Impulse turbine: A turbine in which a fluid acts chiefly by its kinetic energy
• Induction Generator Controller (IGC): An electronic device that keeps an asynchronous motor + capacitors that is used as generator driven by a Micro Hydro turbine running at constant frequency irrespective of electrical loads
• Kaplan turbine: An axial hydraulic reaction type turbine with adjustable runner blades operated with a high flow rate
• Main circuit breaker: An automatic switch that stops the flow of electric current in a suddenly overloaded or otherwise abnormally stressed electric circuit
• Nozzle: A mechanical device designed to control the characteristics of a fluid flow as it exits (or enters) an enclosed chamber or pipe via an orifice.
• Pelton turbine: A hydraulic impulse type turbine usually operated from a high head source with small flow rate
• Propeller turbine: A Kaplan type turbine with non-adjustable runner blades suitable for non-varying head sources
• Rated speed: The speed at which a device, apparatus, conveyance, elevator, etc., is designed to operate in the upward direction with the rated load
• Reaction turbine: A turbine in which a fluid acts both by its kinetic energy and by its pressure
• Runaway speed: Turbine's/generator's speed at full flow, and no shaft load
• Runner: Moving part of a turbine where water power is transformed into the rotational force that drives the generator
• Speed governor: A device which adjusts the intake valves of the turbine in order to maintain the speed of rotation at a required value
• Turbine: A machine for generating rotary mechanical power from the energy of a stream of fluid (such as water, steam, or hot gas), by converting the kinetic energy of fluids to mechanical energy through the principles of impulse and reaction, or a mixture of the two

Hydropower Investment in Indonesia - Post Ministerial Decree 05/09

Indonesia has huge hydropower potential. The potential is approximately 75 GW and less than 4% is now being utilized. Energy demand is rising all the time and according to the recent PLN’s plan (2009-2018) the annual energy demand will rise at 9.7% rate. This means PLN has to provide more generation capacity especially for Java Bali System. Combining only those two factors, it is obvious that there is a big chance for power generation investment in Indonesia.

In their 2009-2018 planning, PLN is suppose to build 70 MW mini hydropower plant ( capacity up to 10 MW) and 3835 MW big hydropower plant (capacity more than 10 MW). The schemes are expected to start operation in 2010 the soonest. IPP is also expected to build 122 MW of mini hydropower plant and 905 MW of big hydropower plant. Those hydropower plants are part of the 10.000 MW crash program 2nd phase. Based on this, there is still huge opportunity for private sector to invest in hydropower generation. Not just that, under the current policy regime, PLN is obliged to buy power from any renewable energy generators (hydro, solar, geothermal, biomass). This means any hydropower scheme development is welcomed.

The question is then “how warm is the welcoming party?” for those investors. I consider a fast easy PPA procedure as a warm welcoming party. The new regulation (ministerial decree 05/2009) should be able to warm up the party. Government has no “core” role in the price negotiation. The least cost based price was left out because the government is not capable of providing the benchmark price to the players in time. The new regulation gives PLN a freedom to negotiate the price. For some this is considered as good progress, but for some others there is still something not right.

What’s not right? After all those regulations in place but nothing happened, the new regulation should be better because it is based on lessons learned, shouldn’t it? New regulation obliged PLN to prepare its own version of investment model for the particular negotiated scheme. For example I am going to invest on a 5 MW hydropower scheme in Sumatera. The cost of investment (considering specific power selling price, IRR and other financial factors) is X billion IDR. For the same site, PLN has to come up with its own investment model and come up with its own cost of investment. Based on the two investment models, PLN is then negotiating the cost of each cost components that eventually will take time. The new regulation might not cut short the time for PPA at all and I think this kind of thing is not a “warm welcome” for new investors especially in hydropower.

What should be improved to make it warmer? PLN is better to prepare fix investment models with adjustable cost components. Those models should be then communicated to all potential investors. Speaking the same language is surely making communication easier and faster. The models should incorporate all inputs from developers/investors so that all possible disputes on the models can be avoided. The process of decentralizing decision making in PLN has to be implemented fast. Price cap that PLN has introduced internally should be publicly disclosed so that potential investors can early calculate the attractiveness of one project.

Indonesia needs energy supply fast and renewable energy can do that. This means investment climate has to be better. The new regulation try to improve the investment climate, but instead of making it better, some still see some problematic arrangements in the regulation. Improvement is still needed and this might be PLN’s turn to work.

Future of National Energy (Indonesia)

In Jakarta Post today (30/4/09), there is this interesting article with a title "future of national energy". What's the future of Indonesia's energy sector? is it oil? is it coal? What is it? My expectation when first looking at the title were a near realistic model of future (I'd say in the next 25 years) energy mix and logical explanation on why Indonesia should go for it. But it seems the article did not answer my expectation. First, there is no time frame mentioned in the article to indicate how far is "future". Is it in 50 years? is it in 20 years? or is it in 5 years from now? There is one line stating "within the next five to 10 years" but that statement is not clearly defining "future". It is just indicating a waiting time if government is doing something. Second, there is no model and the third there is little explanation (and it is only targeted to government only) on why we should change and go for a certain energy usage pattern.

The writer discussed lightly about fuel subsidy that hampers the development of alternative energy. One example given was the slow development of geothermal. Fuel subsidy was blamed for that slow development. I found this a bit absurd. Fuel subsidy is given for oil based fuel that is mainly used for transport and domestic needs. Industry and power generation do not pay the subsidized price. Geothermal energy is so far only useful for electric power. Geothermal competes head to head with coal (that is certainly not subsidized) or hydro. Gas power plants or oil fired power plants are using non subsidized fuel. Geothermal does not compete with fuel for cars or for cooking stove. It is true that if the subsidy lifted and the money goes to the development of alternative fuel, then alternative energy will get a boost, but blaming it all to the fuel subsidy is not 100% true.

To compete with domestic fossil based fuel, bio energy or other alternative energy should be developed more. The use of hydrogen (brown energy) has been tried by many automotive enthusiasts. It is proved to be fuel saving. The use of this technology is surely reducing fossil based fuel consumption. The government should move quicker and set standard for this technology especially concerning safety. With strong standard enforcement, the product will be safe and in good quality.

Bio fuel is also a big issue. How to compete with food? How to regulate the market? Government still learning and they are learning very slow. The bio fuel association has made many complaints about incomplete government regulations. Standard is there, but market regulation is not completely available. The strong willingness to change habit by creating a strong policy is not there with the government. For example the bio fuels of pertamina only contain max 5% bio component (either Ethanol or CPO, check this link) and this type of fuel is not available in any fuel station. This means the largest customer of bio fuel (Pertamina) is not obliged strongly to provide more bio fuel to all areas. If pertamina is obliged, I believe the boost of bio fuel industry is coming.

Anyway, lifting the subsidy I agree 100%. I am convinced that lifting subsidy should push people to be more efficient in using fuel and further boost better public transport system. Money for the subsidy can go to better public transport system and development of alternative energy (research or improvement of investment climate).

I believe bio fuel and hydrogen is the future Energy of Indonesia. This is considering potentially high domestic fuel demand especially in rural areas where canned gas cannot reach the places. Solar can also play role if the price can go down and lifestyle to be green is booming. Do not forget nuclear. Electric power should leave coal untouched and leave the forest be green and biodiversity develops. Nuclear for electric power is for sure in the future. At the end fossil fuel era will end. People have to change and government should start the change. Make proper policy and regulation. Support the appropriate side of the market mechanism and think clearer. Leave alone energy sector and do not mix it with politics.

Micro Hydro Terminologies - Second Batch

Same sources plus some sources that I already forgot.

Classification

• High Head System: A hydroelectric power plant having head higher than 300 meters
• Low Head System: A hydroelectric power plant having head up to 30 meters
• Medium Head System: A hydroelectric power plant having head up to 300 meters
• Micro Hydropower: A hydroelectric power generation up to 100 kW
• Mini Hydropower: A hydroelectric power generation up to 1000 kW
• Off Grid: A hydroelectric power plant that does not operate in interconnected mode
• On Grid: A hydroelectric power plant that operates in interconnected mode
• Pico Hydropower: A hydroelectric power generation under 5 kW
• Run of River: A hydroelectric power station which uses the river flow as it occurs, the filling period of its own reservoir by the cumulative water flows being practically
  
• Small Hydropower: A hydroelectric power generation up to 10 MW

Site Identification

• Catchment area: An extent of land where water from rain or snow melt drains downhill into a body of water, such as a river, lake, reservoir, estuary, wetland, sea or ocean
• Discharge (flow): Volume of water that passes a given point within a given period of time.
• Flood: An overflow of an expanse of water that submerges land
• Flow duration curve: A plot that shows the percentage of time that flow in a stream is likely to equal or exceed some specified value of interest
• Gauging station: A particular site on a stream, canal, lake, or reservoir where systematic observations of hydrologic data are obtained.
• Head: The difference in number of feet between two water surface elevations. Height of water above a specified point.
• Slope: The slope is defined as the ratio of the altitude change to the horizontal distance between any two points on the line
• Topography: Physical shape of the ground surface in a geographic area.

Planning

• Bill of Quantity: a document itemizing the materials, parts, and labor (and their costs) required to construct, maintain, or repair a structure or device
• Cost estimate: Approximation of the probable total cost of a product, program, or project, computed on the basis of available information
• Load Forecast: An estimate of the expected load of a network at a given future date
• Design flow: Is the flow at which the turbine operates at highest energy conversion efficiency
• Plant Gradient: Ratio between length of overall water conveyance system and head
• Energy Unit Cost: The cost to generate per unit of energy. Usually has cost/kWh unit (e.g. x US$/kWh)
• Feasibility Study: An exercise that involves documenting each of the potential solutions to a particular business problem or opportunity.
• Financial Analysis: an assessment of the viability, stability and profitability of a business, sub-business or project.
• Payback Period: the period of time required for the return on an investment to "repay" the sum of the original investment
• Internal Rate of Return: The interest rate received for an investment consisting of payments and income that occur at regular periods
• Net Present Value: the total present value (PV) of a time series of cash flows
• Discount rate: An interest rate a central bank charges depository institutions that borrow reserves from it. Discount rate is always compared to IRR to value an investment

Micro Hydro Terminologies - First Batch

I have been trying to find and collect some important terminologies of micro hydro power. The sources of the definitions are Wikipedia, International Electrotechnical Commission, Manitoba Hydro and some coming from internal sources. The list is not covering all detail technical terms (e.g. detail definition of a generator or a turbine). The list will only covers very general that newbies will find it easy to understand more about micro hydro power. The first batch will contain only terminologies that I categorized into "general".

• AC Alternating Current: An electrical system fed by alternating voltage
• Benefit-cost ratio: The ratio of the present value of project benefits to the present value of the project costs, used in economic analysis.
• Bidding: An offer (often competitive) of setting a price one is willing to pay for something
  
• Black start facility: Internal facility to restore a power station to operation without relying on external energy sources
• Community participation: Involvement of people in a community in projects to solve their own problems
• Contour line: In cartography, a contour line (often just called a "contour") joins points of equal elevation (height) above a given level, such as mean sea level
• Earthing system: An arrangement of connections and devices necessary to earth equipment or a system separately or jointly
• Efficiency: Energy conversion efficiency is the ratio between the useful output of an energy conversion machine and the input, in energy terms
• Feed in tariff: An incentive structure to encourage the adoption of renewable energy through government legislation. The regional or national electricity utilities are obligated to buy renewable electricity (electricity generated from renewable sources such as solar photovoltaic, wind power, biomass, hydropower and geothermal power) at above market rates set by the government
• Frequency: Frequency is the rate or number of times a bar magnet rotates a full 360 degrees inside a coil, during one second. Most people just say 60 cycles, and the "each second" is understood. AC current is generated at 60 cycles in North America and 50 cycles in most of the rest of the world. The term 60 cycles is usually shortened even further and referred to as 60 Hertz. Utilities accurately control AC power production to this 60-Hertz value, since it is the basis of operation for many devices, especially clocks
  
• Hydroelectric installation: An ordered arrangement of civil engineering structures, machinery and plant designed chiefly to convert the gravitational potential energy of water into electricity
  
• Hydroelectric plant: A power plant that produces electricity from the power of rushing water turning turbine-generators.
• Hydroelectric power station: A power station in which the gravitational energy of water is converted into electricity
• Hydroelectric set: A generating set consisting of a hydraulic turbine mechanically connected to an electrical generator
• Hydrologic cycle: The natural recycling process powered by the sun that causes water to evaporate into the atmosphere, condense and return to earth as precipitation.
• Interconnected operation: The operation of two or more networks interconnected by links (for example: lines, transformers, d.c. links) enabling the mutual exchange of electrical energy
  
• Kilowatt (kW): An electrical unit of work or power equal to 1000 Watts
• Kilowatt-Hour (kWh): Basic unit of electric energy equal to one kilowatt of power applied over one hour. A unit energy equivalent to one thousand watthours
• Megawatt (MW): One million watts of electrical power
• Megawatt-hour (MWh): One million watt-hours of electrical energy
• Neutral: The designation of any conductor, terminal or any element connected to the neutral point of a poly phase system
• Nominal voltage of a system: A suitable approximate value of voltage used to designate or identify a system
• Phase: The designation of any conductor, bundle of conductors, terminal, winding or any other element of a polyphase system, which is intended to be energized under normal use
  
• Power factor (cos phi): The ratio of the real power flowing to the load to the apparent power, and is a number between 0 and 1 (frequently expressed as a percentage, e.g. 0.5 pf = 50% pf). The power factor is equal to cos phi)
  
• Power purchase agreement: A legal contract between an electricity generator (commonly a utility company) and a host site owner or lessor. The host site owner or lessor purchases energy or capacity (power or ancillary services) from the PPA Provider (the electricity generator)

No Water no Humanity - Safe the forest

Declining forest coverage is certainly reducing geothermal potential. Geothermal literally means earth heat. Heat from the earth's core is brought to the surface by many means e.g. hot water and lava. Geothermal electric power plant is using heater underground water to spin the turbine and generator. Heated underground water gathers in a place called geothermal reservoir. There is a strong relationship between geothermal electric power and water availability especially underground water. Picture: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Geothermal_energy_methods.png (18/3/09)

Underground water flows in an earth layer called aquifer. this layer is permeable (penetrable) and therefore the water flows in it. This layer might rise at certain earth area and this area is usually a very good water catchment area or recharge area. there are also shallow aquifers where surface water can penetrate the soil and create shallow flows of water. In both cases, soil absorption capability is very important. Soil absorption capability is very much depending on the soil coverage (e.g. forest). Certain trees or plants have very good water absorption. Forest cutting and land clearing and also land development have created severe damage to the water table condition. Forest cutting means reducing soil coverage and thus reducing the capability of soil to absorb water and therefore little or even no water is recharged to the aquifer. Land development (usually by paving or tarmac or houses) increases the surface flow and reduce water absorption to nearly zero and the effect is the same. Picture: http://belmont.sd62.bc.ca/teacher/geology12/photos/erosion-water/aquifer.jpg (18/3/09).

Mentioned earlier, geothermal needs water to be heated in the aquifer. If there is little water recharged then the pressure of the steam will also be low and therefore it will not be very attractive to explore that particular geothermal potential further.

It is very much clearer now that human needs water. Human consist of water (80%). Man can live without food but not water. Water makes our food crops grow. Water feeds us. Water makes energy. Almost every power generator needs water to generate electricity. Water needs to be preserved and forest is the key. If the forest is dying there will be no more humanity.

As for geothermal energy, it will still be renewable as long as there is forest.

Who does not like to be "ooohh" by their friends. "Ooooh" is showing how people amazed by things or others. Getting "ooohed" by your friends would certainly lifting your mental condition. One can feel higher, stronger, richer, smarter or any superlative condition. This can start cockiness and when someone has this feeling in his/her heart there is a tendency that he/she will start looking other people smaller and has little respect unless to those that are cockier.

I observe in the facebook (especially among my "friends"); they tend to post pictures when they are abroad. It is true that being abroad is a kind of pride for Indonesians because only the rich or the lucky ones are able to be there (and having fun). Although in reality there are many Indonesians in the Middle East working and not really showing their faces in the FB. I am on the opinion that putting such photos would make people cocky and certainly there is a certain superlative feeling. I am afraid that those feelings will influence the way people see others.

What I really want to say is "let's not see other less lucky people small". In a way, they confirm our existence. Actions are more important than just talks. As one famous radio announcer says "it is good being important, but it is more important to be good". Let's be humble...

Cycling - New Status Statement...

Cycling is becoming a new way of status statement. I just visited one cycling forum. In one of the threads, somebody is complaining that those that ride expensive bicycle are flocking only with those having similarly expensive bikes. The forum replied that thread in various point of view. Some are agreeing that rich cyclist are snob, some try to be wise, some try to joke on the condition, some try to encourage and some are just do not give a damn about the fact. the last group says that as long as those expensive bikes are used as proper sport tool then it is OK. For them bicycling is a matter of sport. Bicycle, any type any price, serves only one thing: sport. And anyway, professional athletes are using expensive bikes to win

It is true that the "rich" one usually flocks with the same kind. It is unavoidable, especially in Indonesia where "success" is always the same as "rich". It is true that "quality" comes with a price. those that are "rich" usually demand higher quality. I am on the opinion that as long as they do not make fun of those with "cheaper" bikes then it is OK. As long as they use their bike for sport then it is OK. Maybe those with "cheaper" bikes are actually already riding "pricey" bikes compared others that are "less pricey" bike owners. The one who started the thread might envy the hardware or he/she might not have the courage to mingle with them (lack of self confidence). I would say, somebody does not need a materialistic things to be confident (although it is hard to be like that when the world sees it differently).

Anyway, keep on cycling because you can enjoy cycling by yourself.

Please, Do not waste more money.....

let's say there are 1000 legislative candidates (actually there are approximately 12.000 candidates) for the 2009 election (national, provincial, and regency level) and each candidate has to provide at least 1 billion IDR (9 zeros) for their campaign purposes. There will be at least 1 trillion IDR (twelve zeros) spent on public relation actions. that is actually huge. Let's say that the exchange rate of IDR to US$ is 12.000 IDR per US$; it means there will be at least 83 million US$ (83 Mio US$ x 12 = 960 Mio US$). If one kW of MHP costs on average 5000 US$ then that much of money can be used to develop 16700 kW. Let's say that one village needs only on average 50 kW MHP, then there will be approximately 340 villages electrified with proper electricity. If one village has 100 households and each household has 5 persons then the money can bring happiness to approximately 170000 people. (170.000 x 12 = 2040000 people) Happiness is just the smallest thing. Further regional development in the area will be the bigger thing. A proper use of money can bring development and happiness to people.

Those candidates might spent more than 1 trillion IDR (even more than 12 trillion IDR)for this year's election. the money will just lost (actually not, but those who can benefits from it are mostly people in urban area and because there is no further study on it, I can not say anything but assuming that only a little will benefit (compared to 170000 people or 2040000 people)). If elected, those people might not able to keep their promises and the money is just burned to the air.

Businessmen in the Election

Kompas daily newspaper today write an interesting article about the jobs of this year's election candidates (i.e. house of representatives). To be specific, Kompas focuses on the businessmen that are nominating them selves. Kompas found that the percentage of "businessmen" candidates in each party is significantly big. On average, approximately 18% of the candidates of each party are businessmen. On average 27.5% of those businessmen are number one in the election list (for each specific election area), 18.8 in number two and 13.7% in number thrree. Although this year's election does not 100% counting on candidate's position in the list, but being first listed will give them the chance to get more votes.

Kompas identified possible "vested interests" when businessmen are going to the politics. I am afraid that money will be their first priority reason. As businessmen, they will think of "paying back" the investment. That kind of thinking will eventually nourish more corruption and inefficiencies in the system. Politics and public administration needs specific knowledge, a more macro ones. Businessmen usually think micro (business only). therefore I have the tendency to believe that those businessmen candidates are not sufficiently equipped with the right knowledge.

Mature parties have little businessmen in the candidate list. GOLKAR and DEMOKRAT have little number of candidates coming from business sector. I believe, mature parties have specific rules and standard in allowing somebody nominating his/her self. The standard, I believe, includes the knowledge and also experience. A party that really cares the greater good of the people will be very selective in nominating candidates. The failure of parties in identifying right people will be the failure of the system. However, let's hope that those businessmen are really capable in doing something good in politics. If not, let's blame the parties.

Urgent - Innovative Election Method

Election Day is getting closer and closer. Starting this year the election will be very different from before. Legislative candidates must personally know their voters and voters have to know their preferred candidates. Candidate’s rank in the list does not play important role anymore. The more votes a candidate gets, the higher the chance of him/her to get into the House of Representatives.

It is true that this election method is somehow giving the people/voters the chance to choose their representative. Old system gave the parties to chose which candidates can go to House of Representatives. The rank of candidates affects the chance of each candidate. People vote for the parties not the candidate. This method has produced some complications. People representatives, ideally, have to have broad knowledge and have skill in creating public policies. In reality, some rich guys that can pay more money to the party but have no idea about public policy can be in the first rank and if the party got enough votes, he/she can sit in the House of Representative. This condition has made some regional House of Representative could not work effectively and the government has to waste money on them.

New method really gives a hard test to the candidate. Not just knowledge wise but also money wise. Parties, especially small ones and even the big ones, can not give 100% support to somebody who run for a position in the House of Representative. The candidate has to have enough money to sell him/her self to the public. Creating campaign posters, paying campaign managers and many other things are costly. The new method does need huge amount of money and deep pocket of a candidate. The new method also still has weaknesses. One of them is that many of the candidates do not personally know their voters. It is often that candidate based in Jakarta has voting area in the regions far from his/her home. The “real” connection between people and their representatives is not “there”.

Because it is costly, when candidates elected and won the seats in the House of Representatives, the worst thing can happen. Corruption can grow easily. It is just like business. When you invest on something, you need to gain profit and your investment paid back as soon as possible. When a candidate spent, say 1 million Rupiah for the election (it is more likely minimum 5000 million Rupiah than 1 million Rupiah per candidate), then he or she has to get 1 million Rupiah plus profit during his/her duty period. The salary and all the bonuses for 5 years duty period, I am sure, will not be that much. It is time when House of Representative play dirty role. If government wants to pass a regulation or budget, it needs to be agreed by House of Representative. The House can play hard in order to be bribed.

There are many options, I believe, to play dirty in the House of Representative. This condition creates high social cost and nurture the bribery and corruption habit. And if the representatives are only focusing on speeding up the payback period, they will not be able to focus on their responsibility. The victim will always be the people.

I think smart people in the government have to invent an innovative way to do election. Innovative enough so that in the end elected representatives do not have to worry about their financial investment. Their investment in making better condition for the people is far more valuable than money.

Hydro Glossary - Under Development

I believe that to understand a subject, one also has to speak the language. This means, when somebody wants to understand hydroelectric/hydropower, he or she has to know general important terms of hydroelectric. Because of that, my personal project now is putting all the important (at least from my point of view) terms in one big list. For that I rely on the Internet.

I was looking for a website or websites that contains important hydropower or hydroelectric glossary of terms. I did find an interesting one from Canada. It has approximately 200 hydro related terms and they are covering general terms from many different aspects of hydro power (e.g. civil structure, mechanical electrical, hydrology etc.). This website (http://www.hydro.mb.ca) provides easy to understand definitions of each term so that a novice in hydroelectricity can understand the terms relatively easy.

However, I need more than those provided by the Canadians. I searched the Internet and found a web page of IEC. It is called Electropedia. It does not discuss exclusively hydroelectric but there are some general terms (i.e. generation, distribution) that are closely related to hydroelectric. I believe that when it comes from IEC, the definitions are acceptable by all experts. In search for a complete hydroelectric glossary of terms, I use some definitions from Electropedia.

Beside those two websites, I use the help of Wikipedia. Most of the time, Wiki can provide me exact definition of any term typed. However, there are times that I have to conclude or take a part of the explanation in order to define one specific term.

The list is still growing and I plan to add pictures of related definitions. When I am done with it, I am going to upload it to the Internet. Hope it's useful.

Communicating Policy

This year is election year for Indonesia. Candidates for president have declare them selves and start making promises. Those promises is binding and will be the candidate's policy when he/she become a president.

Yesterday, 15/01/08, I discussed with my PA about activity plan until mid 2009. One of the activities is a joint program in one of the ASEAN countries with famous international bank that usually gives away loans. The discussion for the joint program has been initiated last year and so far emails from our side are just like lost in the sea. There is no reply from that "BIG" institution. I asked my PA whether we can do the program with other institution. His answer is no. That international bank has made a mark on that program in that particular country, therefore no other institution is dare to go for the same program in the same country. It is like a strategy to prevent somebody from doing something. But since the bank does not make any sign of movement, nothing happen so far. What a waste of time...

The second story is about Germany. One party promised their voters and people of Germany that if that particular party won election there will be a massive renewable promotion. That party won but until that policy came to the world there is no renewable investment in Germany. Total silent. What a waste of time....

Then I remember the fuel scarcity just recently in Indonesia. Government gave signal of fuel price cut but did not make its mind on when it will be effective. Many gas station owners refused to stock fuel because they are afraid of losing money due to higher buying cost. The effect was massive...and the weather just make it worst.

I learned something from those three stories. It is important to communicate policy carefully. Prepare contingency plans so that the worst is not happening. In the case of the bank, one high rank person said that it is the way the bank do the things. They will just take a looooooonnnnng time to answer and decide. Not very efficient at all. In the second case, that ruling party should have a side policy that can cover investments before the new promotion program launched. As in the third case, I just do not know what should the government do. Many time, good advices are just ignored by the government. Government is very reactive and not really do the plans with solid baseline. Maybe the advisors to the president are just not smr**t enough to see and analyse the whole big thing and predict or analyse the possible impacts. What a pity...

For the president candidates, be careful with your promise. Make sure that you already have clear realistic plan/s including the contingency plans. Make sure that you know and understand the possible impacts. Make sure that you have strong backup (brain ware). And the last thing is communicate your programs wisely and carefully. Be aware of your weaknesses...

Anyway...have a nice week end..

Energy Price = Energy Scarcity

Happy new year...

Classical Economic Theory says that if there is little supply then the price of the good will go up. This is the law of supply and demand. How true this law in Indonesia?

In the recent months, oil price is dropping from more than 100US$ for each barrel to approximately 40US$ for each barrel. This price drop has influenced energy pricing policy in Indonesia. Gasoline price was cut from IDR 6000 per liter (premium) to IDR 5500 and finally to IDR 5000. When the gasoline price was still in the IDR 4500 per liter level, crude oil price was in the level of 70-90US$ per barrel. Because of that, oil and gas pressure group is always trying to convince the government to again cut the gasoline price. The group calculated that normal premium class gasoline can be lower than IDR 4000 per liter. This discussion is so far only in the discussion level, but the issue has been affecting anyone.

One political party, the ruling party, use gasoline price cut as campaign material. They put the campaign in the television. This campaign indirectly affected the decision making of businessmen especially those in oil and gas business (gas station business). The campaign has created an impression that the current government will suddenly cut gasoline price again without enough notification. This condition has made those businessmen hesitated to stock gasoline and provide supply to his area. They are afraid that the stock that was bought using old price will be sold using new lower price. This condition has created gasoline shortages in many areas in Indonesia.

There are some arguments that the shortage is due to delayed transport. As you might know, transportation using small sea vessel is a bit dangerous now. There are reports of sinking boats or ferry boats in many places in Indonesia. This is due to the weather. Shortage is becoming more severe in outer islands because those area are depending so much on sea transportation. Pertamina said that there is no problem with the supply. Pertamina's refinery is fine and therefore there is no worry for fuel shortage. But as you might already see, things happen differently. There is still fuel shortage.

Anyway, since the energy price in Indonesia is regulated by the government, above mentioned economic law does not apply here in Indonesia. It is worth to note that politic has very much to do with the shortage and the weather just make it worst. Therefore the government should not make people confuse and political party should not use such sensitive issue for campaign material.

One other thing that I have learned from this fuel shortage is that businessmen do not have patriotism. They are just thinking of money money and money...in the last price increase those people have gained many profits because they stocked gasoline using old lower price and sell it with higher price. This is now the time for them to be patriotic. Rich class and middle class in Indonesia are just unreliable...